The Vaccine Intelligence Report: October 29-November 4

The Vaccine Intelligence Report—brought to you by Vaccinate Your Family—provides clear, fact-based updates on vaccine policy, research, and public health each week. This report is part of Viral Truths, a resource designed to cut through the noise, offering concise information to help navigate the evolving immunization landscape.

THIS WEEK AT A GLANCE

• HHS undergoes further leadership changes at FDA and ASPR, reflecting broader internal tensions across the agency

• New research underscores the safety and efficacy of vaccination against Covid, flu, and RSV, as well as the dangers of respiratory illnesses

• With CDC reporting stalled and vaccination gaps widening, measles cases continue to surge, with respiratory illnesses likely to rise as well as peak season approaches

• Senate hearing for Surgeon General nominee Casey Means delayed, new date yet to be announced

OUTBREAK OUTLOOK

Rising Measles Activity Underscores Growing Gaps in Vaccine Awareness

• The US has reported 1,659 measles cases so far this year, as of October 31.
  • Children and adolescents account for 56% of these cases, and 94% of all cases involve people who were unvaccinated or whose vaccination status is unknown.
• States continue to closely monitor cases and potential exposures.
  • South Carolina’s ongoing outbreak has reached 34 cases as of October 31.
  • Along the Utah–Arizona border,13 new confirmed cases were reported last week, as well as the first probable case in Salt Lake County—the state’s largest county.
  • Additionally, health officials in New Jersey and Washington continue to track potential exposures linked to recent travelers.
• As outbreaks continue to occur across the country, a new University of Pennsylvania poll highlights growing uncertainty about measles and the measles-mumps-rubella (MMR) vaccine.
  • While 82% of US adults surveyed still say they would recommend the MMR vaccine for children, this figure is down from 90% in November 2024.
  • Nearly half of the survey respondents were unsure whether HHS Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. recommends children be vaccinated against measles, and many were not informed on key facts about measles risks and MMR vaccine safety.
    • Only 30% knew that getting measles can lead to serious illnesses later in life, and just 22% reported being aware that the disease can cause encephalitis (brain swelling).
    • Nearly one-third said they believed the vaccine increases risk of child mortality, and half said they were unsure.
      • No deaths have been linked to the MMR vaccine in healthy people.

Alternative Sources Show Overall Respiratory Disease Activity Remains Low as CDC Disease Reporting Remains Paused

• CDC’s respiratory surveillance dashboard updates remain paused as the government shutdown enters its fifth week.
• According to nationwide data from WastewaterSCAN viral activity for Covid, respiratory syncytial virus (RSV), and flu remain low.
• That said, analyses of state health department reports and updates suggest respiratory illnesses are already rising in some states, for example:
  • While flu activity remains low overall, states like Indiana and Michigan are reporting increased flu-related emergency department visits among children.
  • Emergency department visits for RSV are beginning to increase in children under five across multiple regions, including Florida, Louisiana, Massachusetts, and Pennsylvania.
  • Covid activity remains low across nearly all regions, accounting for less than 1% of emergency department visits, though rates are expected to rise as colder months approach.

• Notably, Walgreens recently launched an interactive Covid and flu tracker to monitor disease spread as the US approaches peak season.
  • The tracker pulls data from Walgreens’ Covid and flu test results, prescriptions for antivirals, and sales of over-the-counter cold and flu products.
  • So far, the tracker shows that national Covid and flu activity remains low.

NEED TO KNOW

HHS Undergoes Further Leadership Turnover in Key Regulatory Offices

• Dr. George Tidmarsh resigned as Director of the FDA’s Center for Drug Evaluation and Research on Sunday (November 2) following allegations that he used his regulatory authority to financially harm a former business associate.
  • Tidmarsh denies any wrongdoing, claiming that Dr. Vinay Prasad—Director of the FDA’s Center for Biologics Evaluation and Research (CBER)—played a role in his removal.
  • One day after stepping down, Tidmarsh said he will contest the investigation and seek reinstatement, though it is unclear if this is possible.

• His resignation comes amid reports of declining morale at CBER, where Prasad has reportedly pushed out several senior leaders. Staff say morale has deteriorated and hundreds of employees have departed since the start of the year.
  • Prasad has consolidated significant power at HHS, serving concurrently as the FDA’s Chief Medical and Scientific Officer. Although he was dismissed in July, FDA Commissioner Dr. Marty Makary and Kennedy convinced the White House to reinstate him just two weeks later.

• At the Administration for Strategic Preparedness and Response (ASPR), another senior official, Dr. Steven Hatfill, was fired last week. HHS said Hatfill was “terminated for cause” after reportedly misrepresenting himself as ASPR’s “Chief Medical Officer” and failing to coordinate policy decisions with leadership.
  • Hatfill disputes the rationale, alleging he was ousted as part of a “coup to overthrow” Kennedy led by Chief of Staff Matt Buckham.
  • A vocal critic of mRNA Covid vaccines, Hatfill has supported Kennedy’s decision to halt federal funding for mRNA research.
  • ASPR leads the nation’s medical and public health preparedness for and response to disasters and public health emergencies.

New Research Underscores Safety and Efficacy of Vaccination, Danger of Infectious Disease

• A meta-analysis from the Vaccine Integrity Project—a University of Minnesota initiative monitoring vaccine safety, misinformation, and disease prevention—supports the safety and efficacy of vaccination against Covid, flu, and RSV during the 2025-2026 season. The research, which included more than 500 studies in its analysis, found that:
  • The updated Covid vaccines provide an additional reduction of the risk of hospitalization by about 50%.
  • RSV vaccines demonstrated 75-80% effectiveness against hospitalization in adults 60 and older. Additionally, maternal and infant immunization achieved 68-85% effectiveness against infant hospitalization.
  • Flu vaccines effectiveness against hospitalization varied by age group: 67% in children, 48% in working-age adults, and 42-53% in older adults.
  • Additionally, the safety analysis of millions of vaccine recipients found that the benefit-risk balance continues to be strongly in favor of vaccination.

• Additionally, several other new studies were recently published, underscoring the risks of respiratory illnesses and the importance of vaccination.
  • A study published in Obstetrics & Gynecology last week (October 30) found that there was an increased risk of autism and other neurodevelopmental disorders in children whose mothers had a Covid infection while pregnant.
  • A meta-analysis published in the Journal of the American Heart Associationfound flu and Covid infections raised the risk of heart attack or stroke up to five-fold in the weeks following the initial infection. Additionally, viruses such as HIV, hepatitis C, and shingles can lead to long-term increased risk of heart disease and stroke.

REALITY CHECK

These fact checks respond to several recent claims made by different groups and individuals.

CLAIM: mRNA Covid vaccines are not properly tested, and the spike protein generated by these vaccines is toxic and can damage brain or fetal development.

• REALITY: Claims that mRNA vaccines produce a “toxic spike protein” are not supported by any scientific evidence, and mRNA Covid vaccines have gone through the most extensive testing and safety monitoring in US history.
• Before authorization, mRNA Covid vaccines underwent large-scale clinical trials with tens of thousands of participants, and results of these trials were independently reviewed by health authorities and regulatory bodies around the world. Further, continuous safety monitoring of the vaccines has confirmed their strong safety record across hundreds of millions of doses.
• With regard to the safety of the spike protein specifically, the protein made by the vaccine is what helps your immune system mount a response and build antibodies. These proteins do not circulate at harmful levels or persist in the body; they are harmless and break down quickly, leaving behind a strong and lasting immune response.
• Additionally, there is no credible evidence that mRNA vaccines cause neurological damage or impact fetal brain development.
  • Peer reviewed studies show no increased risk of adverse neurodevelopmental effects or adverse pregnancy outcomes associated with vaccination.
  • In fact, research shows Covid vaccination during pregnancy helps protectboth mother and baby from contracting severe Covid, which has been linked to serious health complications, including pre-term birth and stillbirth.

CLAIM: Getting vaccinated during pregnancy is more dangerous for the baby than the mother getting sick with the diseases the vaccines prevent.

• REALITY: The risks of infection from vaccine-preventable diseases during pregnancy far outweigh any risks from vaccination, and vaccination remains one of the safest and most effective ways to protect both mother and baby.

• Extensive research shows that vaccines recommended in pregnancy—including flu, Tdap, and Covid vaccines—are safe for both mother and baby.
  • These vaccines help protect the mother from severe illness and help pass antibodies to the baby, offering protection in the first few months of a baby’s life when they are too young to receive many vaccines.

• In contrast, infections like the flu, whooping cough, and Covid during pregnancy can cause serious complications, including premature birth, stillbirth, and maternal hospitalization.
• Multiple large studies have shown that maternal vaccination does not increase the risk of adverse health outcomes—such as birth defects, preterm birth, or developmental issues, including autism—among babies.
  • Notably, a recent study published in Obstetrics and Gynecology found that Covid infection during pregnancy—not vaccination—was associated with a small increase in neurodevelopmental diagnoses in early childhood.

WHAT TO WATCH

Senate Hearing for Surgeon General Nominee Casey Means Postponed Indefinitely

• The Senate hearing for Trump’s nominee for Surgeon General, Dr. Casey Means, has been postponed indefinitely as the nominee welcomed a child last week. It’s unclear when the hearing, originally scheduled for Thursday (October 30), will be rescheduled.

• Means, a wellness entrepreneur and influencer, has drawn criticism from public health advocates and former Surgeons General, though Secretary Kennedy remains a strong supporter.

Vaccinate Your Family is a nonpartisan organization dedicated to protecting people of all ages from vaccine-preventable diseases. To learn more, visit us at: vaccinateyourfamily.org

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