The Vaccine Intelligence Report—brought to you by Vaccinate Your Family—provides clear, fact-based updates on vaccine policy, research, and public health each week. This report is part of Viral Truths, a resource designed to cut through the noise, offering concise information to help navigate the evolving immunization landscape.
THIS WEEK AT A GLANCE
- Senate HELP Committee set to hold confirmation hearing for Surgeon General nominee Casey Means on Thursday
- NEJM and CIDRAP announced launch of new public health publication intended to serve as alternative to the CDC’s MMWR
- Vaccinate Your Family launches Viral Truths, a new online hub offering clear information on vaccines and vaccine policy
- Utah-Arizona measles outbreak continues to spread, making it the second largest US outbreak behind Texas
OUTBREAK OUTLOOK
US Measles Cases Continue to Surpass 30-Year High While States Keep Close Eye on Potential Spread
- As of October 24, total US measles cases reached 1,621. This year has seen the highest number of measles cases since 1992.
- Measles was declared eliminated in the US in 2000, but officials warn that ongoing outbreaks caused in part by the downward trend in measles-mumps-rubella (MMR) vaccination could cause the US to lose its measles-free status.
- States are closely monitoring new cases and potential exposures.
- The Utah-Arizona measles outbreak has begun to spread beyond its epicenter along the state border to more tourist areas of the state. As of October 24, the total number of cases in the region has grown to 142, making it the second largest outbreak this year, behind Texas.
- Public health data shows that vaccination rates in each of the three affected counties are below the 95% threshold needed to prevent continued spread.
- In South Carolina, the Department of Public Health has reported 33 cases of measles this year, 30 of which have been tied to the current outbreak in Spartanburg County.
- Officials in Hawaii, Nevada, and Washington are also monitoring potential measles activity. Hawaii is investigating possible cases following a recent positive wastewater detection, while Washington and Nevada have issued public alerts about exposure sites linked to travelers who tested positive.
- The Utah-Arizona measles outbreak has begun to spread beyond its epicenter along the state border to more tourist areas of the state. As of October 24, the total number of cases in the region has grown to 142, making it the second largest outbreak this year, behind Texas.
Experts Warn of Expected Seasonal Virus Surges as Federal Monitoring Remains Paused
- As the US enters respiratory virus season, the ongoing federal government shutdown has disrupted national surveillance and communication on major illnesses including Covid, flu, and respiratory syncytial virus (RSV).
- Experts typically use historical and regional disease patterns to anticipate spread of respiratory illnesses, and with federal monitoring paused, these trends are especially valuable for states and individuals preparing for the season.
- RSV activity usually begins in the southern US before moving north, with hospitalizations typically peaking between late December and early January, though timing varies by region.
- Florida has already seen a rise in RSV activity, suggesting other states may soon follow.
- Flu activity is harder to predict, but historically peaks between December and February; so far, national activity remains low, though CDC reporting is paused due to the government shutdown.
- Covid tends to have two annual surges—one in the summer and another during respiratory season, usually in late December or early January.
- RSV activity usually begins in the southern US before moving north, with hospitalizations typically peaking between late December and early January, though timing varies by region.
- Officials caution that infectious diseases don’t stay within state boundaries and urge travelers to take precautions ahead of the holidays.
- In the absence of regular federal updates, wastewater surveillance continues to offer valuable, real-time insights.
- National wastewater data show low RSV and flu activity and medium Covid activity over the last three months, according to WastewaterSCAN—a Stanford University-based database that compiles data from nearly 150 locations and continues to be updated despite the shutdown.
NEED TO KNOW
New Resource, Viral Truths, Offers Clear Information on Vaccines and Policy
- Vaccinate Your Family has launched Viral Truths, a new online hub offering clear, accessible information about vaccines and vaccine policy. The site features answers to common questions, timely news and commentary, and past issues of the Vaccine Intelligence Report—all designed to help you stay informed in a rapidly evolving landscape.
Senate Hearing for Surgeon General Nominee Casey Means Set for Thursday
- On Thursday (October 30), the Senate Committee on Health, Education, Labor, and Pensions (HELP) will hold a virtual confirmation hearing for Casey Means, who has been nominated to serve as US Surgeon General.
- Means’ lack of medical experience has drawn criticism—while she holds a medical degree, she left her residency program before finishing. She is not a board-certified physician, nor does she hold an active medical license.
- Former Surgeons General Richard Carmona and Jerome Adams have published op-eds opposing her nomination, arguing that the role requires extensive medical and public health training to lead the Public Health Service Commissioned Corps and effectively respond to national health challenges.
- As a wellness influencer and entrepreneur, Means is focused on chronic disease and holistic health. In government filings, Means said she would resign from Levels Health, a health technology company she co-founded, and would stop promoting supplements and other wellness products.
- HHS Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. has been a strong supporter of Means, despite pushback from some allies, who don’t see her as a strong enough champion of the MAHA movement.
NEJM and CIDRAP Launch New Public Health Publication Amid CDC Reporting Delays
- The New England Journal of Medicine (NEJM) and the Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy (CIDRAP) are partnering to launch a new publicationintended to serve as an alternative to the Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report(MMWR), the CDC’s flagship weekly publication.
- Since 1952, the MMWR has played a critical role in disseminating details of new outbreaks and emerging diseases. But changes at the CDC have led some public health practitioners to lose confidence in the publication’s reliability.
- The MMWR has been published during every previous government shutdownsince the 1990s.
- This January, the MMWR missed publishing a weekly edition for the first time in its history, and the current government shutdown has led to another pause in weekly reporting.
- Overall, the journal has been publishing fewer articles than in past years, reportedly due to new clearance requirements by the office of the HHS Secretary and reduced staff capacity due to reductions in force.
- The MMWR’s former editor-in-chief also said there was pressure from administration officials to change the way it reports information.
- NEJM and CIDRAP will publish Public Health Alerts as needed (rather than weekly) “to disseminate essential data on disease outbreaks and other issues of public health importance.”
- The open-access publication is expected to launch next month, and CIDRAP Director Michael Osterholm has encouraged infectious disease specialists “to begin thinking about submissions of outbreaks or data [they] think should be evaluated.”
REALITY CHECK
These fact checks respond to several recent claims made by different groups and individuals.
CLAIM: Childhood vaccination is the most significant modifiable risk factor for autism spectrum disorder (ASD).
- REALITY: Epidemiological studies, meta-analyses, and systematic reviews have found no causal link between vaccines—including MMR or those containing thimerosal—and autism spectrum disorder (ASD). These studies involved millions of children and consistently disproved any link.
- Claims linking vaccines to autism are not supported by credible scientific evidence. The few studies that suggest such a connection have either been fully retracted or widely discredited due to serious methodological flaws, small or biased samples, or failure to meet basic standards of scientific rigor, replication, and peer review.
- While autism diagnoses have increased since 2000, research shows the rise is largely due to a complex set of factors such as broader diagnostic criteria, greater awareness, improved screening and detection, and changes in service access and reporting.
CLAIM: There has not been enough research on the safety of the cumulative childhood vaccine schedule.
- REALITY: The full childhood immunization schedule has been studied extensively and monitored for safety, and a landmark report from the Institute of Medicine (now known as the National Academy of Medicine) concluded that the recommended schedule is safe.
- Both the FDA and CDC rigorously evaluate vaccines individually and in the combinations in which they are given. These evaluations include clinical trials that use placebos or comparison groups to ensure both safety and efficacy.
- Even after vaccines are approved and made available, all the vaccines in the childhood immunization schedule continue to be monitored by the FDA and CDC. The schedule is dynamic, meaning that, should new information or research arise, vaccine recommendations would be adjusted to ensure optimal safety and efficacy.
- Trusted sources, such as the American Academy of Pediatrics (AAP), emphasize that childhood vaccination is “the safest and most cost-effective way of preventing disease, disability and death.”
CLAIM: If vaccines work, people who are vaccinated are already protected and therefore it shouldn’t matter whether others choose to be vaccinated.
- REALITY: While it is true that vaccines protect individuals who receive them, significantly lowering their risk of infection or severe illness, protection is strongestwhen vaccination rates are high across the broader population. This is known as community immunity or herd immunity.
- When more people are vaccinated, germs can’t travel as easily from person to person and diseases have fewer chances to spread, reducing overall transmission and making outbreaks less likely.
- This population-level protection helps shield those who can’t be vaccinated like newborns, people with severe allergies, or those with weakened immune systems.
- If large numbers of people opt out of vaccination, it weakens this protection, allowing diseases to circulate and increasing exposure risk even when people are vaccinated.
- While vaccines provide strong and reliable protection, no vaccine is 100% effective, and immunity can wane over time. When there are outbreaks among unvaccinated groups, even people who are vaccinated can face breakthrough infections or higher exposure, especially if they are older or have conditions that impact immune response.
WHAT TO WATCH
Hearing Set for Medical Organizations’ Lawsuit Against Kennedy (October 30)
- In July, a coalition of major medical organizations led by AAP filed a lawsuit against HHS Secretary Kennedy over his removal of Covid vaccine recommendations for healthy children and pregnant women, arguing that the changes are unlawful and endanger public health.
- Proceedings have been paused due to the government shutdown, but the plaintiffs have filed a motion to lift the stay. A hearing on the motion has been scheduled for Thursday (October 30), and HHS must file any opposition no later than 3:00 pm ET Wednesday (October 29).
Vaccinate Your Family is a nonpartisan organization dedicated to protecting people of all ages from vaccine-preventable diseases. To learn more, visit us at: vaccinateyourfamily.org
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