The Vaccine Intelligence Report: July 1-7

The Vaccine Intelligence Report—brought to you by Vaccinate Your Family—provides clear, fact-based updates on vaccine policy, research, and public health each week. This report is part of Viral Truths, a resource designed to cut through the noise, offering concise information to help navigate the evolving immunization landscape.

THIS WEEK AT A GLANCE

  • A major flu outbreak at Lackland Air Force Base prompted the Pentagon to restore flu immunization requirements for new military recruits, underscoring the role of vaccination in protecting health in congregate settings and operational readiness for the nation’s military
  • New laws in Iowa and Maryland reflect diverging state vaccine policy approaches, with Iowa limiting adolescent access to HPV vaccination and Maryland strengthening state-level authority to issue immunization recommendations
  • A federal appeals court again upheld New York’s ban on religious exemptions to school immunization requirements, though the case could return to the Supreme Court
  • New state data show rising vaccine exemptions and local pockets of low coverage, reinforcing that statewide averages can mask growing outbreak risk
  • Measles continues to spread across the U.S. as NFID launches a new collaborative focused on prevention, response, healthcare provider education, and public outreach
  • The Bundibugyo ebolavirus outbreak in the DRC and Uganda continues to grow as a new clinical trial begins testing potential treatments during the active outbreak
  • New studies reaffirm the safety of mRNA Covid vaccines and same-day flu/Covid vaccination, while CDC research shows flu vaccination substantially reduces the risk of pediatric flu death

NEED TO KNOW

Lackland Flu Outbreak Prompts Military to Restore Recruit Vaccination Requirement

  • A major influenza (flu) outbreak at Lackland Air Force Base in Texas has underscored the importance of vaccination, particularly in high-risk settings like basic training, where recruits live, eat, and train in close quarters.
  • In late April, Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth ended the military’s longstanding requirement that U.S. service members receive an annual flu vaccination, making the vaccine optional across the force. Following the change, only 40% of new trainees at Lackland opted to receive the vaccine.
  • By late June, nearly 300 cases and at least four hospitalizations had been reported among Lackland trainees. The Air Force also confirmed that 25-year-old trainee Keon McDaniel died from flu, according to Rep. Joaquin Castro (D-TX).
  • As the outbreak grew, Lackland requested permission to reinstate the flu vaccination requirement for recruits, and the base resumed vaccinating trainees by mid-June.
    • Rep. Hillary Scholten (D-MI) has called for an investigation into McDaniel’s death, while other lawmakers have raised broader concerns about the impact of the policy change on troop health and military readiness.
  • By late June, the Pentagon had restored the flu vaccination requirement for all recruits entering military boot camps, including in the Army, Navy, and Air Force. The Army and Navy are also seeking to reinstate the requirement more broadly, including for troops deploying overseas, healthcare workers, and childcare workers.
    • Officials have said the decision was not directly tied to the Lackland outbreak, but Pentagon spokesman Sean Parnell acknowledged the need to account for “critical operational realities.”
  • The reversal may not fully resolve near-term prevention challenges. Military training sites are now working to contain flu transmission as existing seasonal vaccine doses reportedly expired June 30. Updated 2026-2027 flu vaccines are not expected to arrive until August or later, as manufacturers complete production for the upcoming respiratory virus season.
    • Despite ongoing challenges facing the Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices (ACIP) and Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) more broadly, experts believe there likely won’t be a major disruption in access to updated flu vaccines.
  • The outbreak highlights why flu vaccination has historically been treated as both a health protection and a readiness measure in military settings. Even outside the typical winter flu season, crowded training environments can allow respiratory viruses to spread quickly, disrupting training, increasing medical burden, and putting some recruits at risk of severe illness.

STATE POLICY

New State Vaccine Laws Reflect Diverging Policy Approaches

  • New vaccine-related laws took effect July 1 in Iowa and Maryland, highlighting contrasting approaches to vaccine policy.
  • In Iowa, a new law now requires parental consent for minors to receive the human papillomavirus (HPV) and hepatitis B vaccines, ending a longstanding exception that allowed adolescents to consent to vaccines.
    • HPV vaccination for minors is crucial to preventing HPV-related cancers. The latest research finds that vaccination before age 16 reduces cervical cancer risk by roughly 80%.
    • Another new Iowa law limits several of the governor’s powers during disaster emergencies, including authority related to vaccination.
  • A new Maryland law allows the state’s Department of Health to issue official immunization recommendations, independent of federal agencies.
    • The law emphasizes guidance issued by medical professional societies, including the American Academy of Pediatrics (AAP), the American Academy of Family Physicians (AAFP), and the American College of Obstetricians & Gynecologists (ACOG), though federal sources may still inform recommendations.
    • This follows other vaccine-protective legislation passed last year in Maryland, which ensured that insurance providers cover the cost of all vaccines recommended by ACIP as of December 31, 2024.

New York’s Ban on Religious Vaccine Exemptions Reaffirmed 

  • Last week, the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Second Circuit again upheld New York’s ban on religious exemptions to school immunization requirements.
    • The case was brought by Amish parents who argued that New York’s 2019 repeal of religious exemptions violated their First Amendment right to freedom of religion.
    • The Supreme Court sent the case back to the Second Circuit in December 2025 for reconsideration in light of a separate religious freedom ruling, but the appeals court again found New York’s law constitutional.
  • Some legal experts warn that the case could return to the Supreme Court, where a potential reversal would have implications for state immunization requirements and religious exemption policies nationwide.

Rising Exemptions Signal Growing Outbreak Risk, Even Where Vaccination Rates Remain High

  • New state vaccination data show that childhood immunization coverage remains uneven, with rising exemptions and local pockets of low coverage increasing the risk of vaccine-preventable disease outbreaks.
  • In Mississippi, kindergarten vaccination coverage remains high overall at 97.2% for the 2025-2026 school year, but the rate declined slightly from the previous year as religious vaccine exemptions increased by more than 60%. Eight counties have now fallen below 95% kindergarten vaccination coverage—the threshold generally needed to prevent sustained measles transmission.
    • The shift is notable because Mississippi has historically had some of the strongest school immunization protections in the country and among the highest vaccination rates. That began to change in 2023 when a federal judge ruled that parents can opt out of vaccinating their children due to religious beliefs. Even small declines in a high-coverage state can create local vulnerabilities when exemptions cluster geographically.
  • Texas shows a similar warning sign. Kindergarten measles vaccination coverage increased only slightly after the state’s 2025 measles outbreak, rising from 93.2% to 93.3%, while remaining below pre-pandemic levels.
    • At the same time, the share of kindergarteners claiming conscientious exemptions for school immunizations rose to 4.45%, continuing an upward trend that accelerated after lawmakers simplified the exemption process.
  • Wisconsin reported that just 86.4% of public-school students were up to date on required vaccinations during the most recent school year. The state has seen a long-term increase in personal conviction waivers alongside declining compliance with school immunization requirements, though the share of students receiving waivers from all required vaccines declined slightly last year.

OUTBREAK OUTLOOK

News on respiratory virus season, measles, pertussis, and other vaccine-preventable and infectious disease outbreaks.

Measles Continues to Spread Across U.S. as Public Health Groups Work to Strengthen Prevention 

  • As of July 2, the U.S. has reported 2,184 measles cases in 2026. Several states reported new or continued measles activity:
    • Arizona officials have reported two new cases this month, bringing the state’s 2026 total to 108 cases as of July 7.
    • Colorado reported one new measles case this week, bringing the state’s 2026 total to 24.
    • Pennsylvania reported seven new measles cases in the last week, bringing the state’s 2026 total to 94 as of July 6.
    • South Dakota confirmed one new measles case this week, bringing the state’s 2026 total to 11 cases.
    • Utah officials reported two new measles cases last week, bringing the state’s total to 507 cases in 2026 as of July 7.
    • Virginia remains a current measles hotspot—the state’s 2026 total has risen to 167 as of July 7, after officials reported one measles case in the last week.
  • Last week, the National Foundation for Infectious Diseases (NFID) announced the creation of the Measles Collaborative, an initiative that aims to strengthen measles prevention, response, and education nationwide.
    • The initiative was launched following NFID’s May 2026 Measles Summit, which brought together U.S. medical societies, public health organizations, and measles experts to identify opportunities in the effort to eliminate measles.
    • The Collaborative’s goals include developing clinical guidance and educational tools for healthcare professionals, as well as conducting public education efforts and outreach to populations vulnerable to misinformation.

Ebola Outbreak Grows as Clinical Trials Aim to Find Effective Treatments 

  • The Bundibugyo ebolavirus outbreak in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) and Uganda continues to grow, with 1,561 confirmed cases and 506 deaths in the DRC, alongside 20 cases and 2 deaths in Uganda as of July 5.
  • In an effort to find an effective treatment against the rare strain of Ebola virus, for which there is no approved vaccine or treatment, a new clinical trial opened enrollment for patients in the DRC on July 2.
    • The trial will evaluate whether two antiviral therapies recommended by the World Health Organization (WHO) Technical Advisory Group—the monoclonal antibody (mAb) MBP134 and the antiviral drug remdesivir—can improve survival in patients with confirmed Bundibugyo virus disease.
    • Unlike past treatment research, this trial will evaluate treatments during the outbreak to provide possible therapies to current Bundibugyo virus patients while generating evidence for broader treatment access in the future.

New Studies Reaffirm Vaccine Safety and Protection Against Severe Disease

  • Several new studies add to evidence that vaccination remains a critical tool for preventing severe illness and death.
  • A new study in The Lancet reaffirmed the safety and efficacy of mRNA Covid vaccines.
    • In a review covering billions of doses of mRNA vaccines, researchers found that serious adverse events due to Covid vaccination are rare, and the vaccines’ substantial protection against severe disease far outweighs any risks.
    • Researchers note that mRNA vaccines can continue to drive progress in preventive medicine, but that key accessibility barriers including price and storage requirements must be addressed to ensure equitable access.
  • Another study published in the Annals of Internal Medicine found that receiving flu and Covid vaccines on the same day (coadministration) does not increase the risk of adverse reactions compared with receiving flu vaccine alone.
    • Researchers reviewed the medical records of 2.5 million adults in the Veterans Affairs health system and found similar safety outcomes across multiple updated Covid vaccine formulations.
    • These findings add to a substantial evidence base on the safety of vaccine coadministration.
  • Additionally, a study by CDC researchers found that flu vaccination reduced the risk of flu-related deaths among children by 80% from August 2016 through July 2025.
    • Flu vaccination was 87% effective against flu-related death among children without underlying medical conditions and 77% among children with such conditions.
    • These results come after the 2024-2025 flu season recorded the highest number of pediatric flu fatalities on record, as vaccination rates have been declining since 2021. Researchers note that while flu vaccination is not expected to prevent every case, it remains critical for protecting against severe disease and death.

REALITY CHECK

These fact checks respond to several recent claims made by different groups and individuals.

CLAIM: Immunization requirements do not meaningfully protect communities and mainly restrict personal choice.

  • REALITY: Vaccination is a well-studied intervention that helps reduce risk in communities. Requirements are a part of shared responsibility for engaging in shared spaces, like schools or universities.
  • Every state has school immunization requirements, and every state allows for medical exemptions. States differ, however, in whether they allow non-medical exemptions, often referred to as religious, conscience, philosophical, or personal belief exemptions.
  • School immunization requirements work by increasing community vaccination coverage rates. Higher coverage makes it harder for vaccine-preventable diseases to spread, helping protect those who may not be able to be vaccinated and entire communities from the risk of outbreaks.
  • Part of the reason that school immunization requirements work is by creating important touchpoints with the healthcare system. These touchpoints can help support broader preventive care, including increased uptake of non-required vaccines as well.
    • Not all children who are under-vaccinated have parents who oppose vaccination; some fall behind because of access barriers, confusion, missed appointments, or gaps in records. These touchpoints also help children catch up with their recommended vaccination schedule.
  • Historical evidence shows how immunization requirements can protect communities.
    • During a 1970 measles outbreak along the Texas-Arkansas border, Arkansas schools checked student vaccination records, while Texas schools did not have the same policy infrastructure in place.
    • As measles surged amid low vaccination coverage, 96% of outbreak cases occurred in Texas, demonstrating how school immunization requirements and enforcement systems can help prevent disease from spreading.
  • In short, immunization requirements are not about eliminating choice; they are a longstanding public health tool for reducing preventable disease risk in shared spaces.

WHAT TO WATCH

HHS Expected to Propose Covid Countermeasures Injury Table

  • HHS plans to publish a proposed rule by November establishing the first Covid injury table for the Countermeasures Injury Compensation Program (CICP), according to the Administration’s latest Unified Agenda.
    • The CICP provides compensation for serious injuries or deaths directly caused by covered countermeasures, including vaccines, medications, and other products used during public health emergencies.
    • For Covid-related claims, the program currently reviews cases individually because it does not yet have a Covid-specific injury table to guide determinations. The Vaccine Injury Compensation Program (VICP) has such a table for injuries or conditions associated with covered vaccines, which currently does not include Covid vaccines.
  • A Covid countermeasure injury table would list specific injuries that may qualify for presumptive compensation if they occur within a set timeframe after receiving a Covid vaccination or other covered treatment and meet the program’s eligibility requirements.
    • Under federal rules, injuries included on an injury table must be supported by “compelling, reliable, valid, medical, and scientific evidence.”
  • The effort is not new—HHS has been working toward a Covid injury table for several years, and it was previously included in the Biden Administration’s regulatory agenda. However, the proposal is likely to receive heightened scrutiny given the current Administration’s broader efforts to reshape federal vaccine policy and elevate vaccine injury claims.
  • If the proposed rule is published in the fall, a public comment period will open before any final rule is issued. Attention will likely be focused on which injuries are proposed for inclusion, the scientific evidence cited to support those decisions, and whether the final table takes stakeholder comments into consideration.

HHS to End Covid Emergency Use Authorization Declarations

  • HHS announced last week (Jun. 30) that it will begin phasing out the Emergency Use Authorization (EUA) declarations that have been in effect for certain Covid drugs, biologics, and medical devices since the 2020 pandemic.
    • The EUAs will expire on December 26, 2026, for medical devices and June 29, 2027, for drugs and biologics, giving manufacturers some time to seek full approval from the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) if they want these products to remain on the market.
  • The announcement is not expected to have a significant practical impact. All Covid vaccines licensed in the U.S.—Comirnaty, Nuvaxovid, and Spikevax—are already fully approved by the FDA.
    • However, a small number of non-vaccine Covid products are still available under an EUA and will need full FDA approval to remain available after the transition period. This includes Pemgarda, a Covid preventive mAb used for certain immunocompromised people who may not mount an adequate immune response to vaccination.
  • Importantly, the decision marks another step in winding down the federal government’s Covid emergency authorities, but it does not mean that existing FDA-approved Covid vaccines or treatments are being withdrawn from the market.
    • It also does not reflect a new safety finding; rather, HHS determined that the emergency circumstances justifying the EUA declarations no longer exist.

Senate HELP Committee to Hold Hearing on HHS and CDC Nominations

  • On Wednesday, July 15, the Senate Health, Education, Labor, and Pensions (HELP) Committee will hold a confirmation hearing on the nomination of Sean Kaufman to be Assistant Secretary for Preparedness and Response (ASPR) for HHS and Erica Schwartz to be Director of the CDC.
  • The hearing will mark the first formal committee action on the nominations since both were announced in April, as the Administration continues working to fill key Senate-confirmed public health leadership roles at HHS and CDC.

Vaccinate Your Family is a nonpartisan organization dedicated to protecting people of all ages from vaccine-preventable diseases. To learn more, visit us at: vaccinateyourfamily.org

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