The Vaccine Intelligence Report—brought to you by Vaccinate Your Family—provides clear, fact-based updates on vaccine policy, research, and public health each week. This report is part of Viral Truths, a resource designed to cut through the noise, offering concise information to help navigate the evolving immunization landscape.
THIS WEEK AT A GLANCE
- The new CDC recommended childhood immunization schedule has increased division in U.S. vaccine policy, with many states rejecting the new guidelines and instead following AAP’s recommended schedule
- The new childhood schedule may lay the groundwork for Kennedy to overhaul the Vaccine Injury Compensation Program (VICP), which has been a longstanding priority for Secretary Kennedy and his allies
- Two OB-GYNs were appointed to the CDC’s vaccine advisory committee amid a review of vaccines during pregnancy
- Flu activity is high across the U.S., straining resources in many states; 8 additional pediatric flu deaths were reported last week
- Measles case numbers also continue to grow in many states, with South Carolina recording its largest outbreak surge to date
NEED TO KNOW
New CDC Childhood Immunization Schedule Increases Division in U.S. Vaccine Policy
- The January 5 announcement of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s (CDC) new recommended childhood immunization schedule—which scaled back routine immunization recommendations from 17 diseases to 11—has led to further division across the U.S. and within the vaccine policy landscape.
- The CDC has said the updated recommendations bring the U.S. in line with “peer, developed nations.” However, a comparative analysis suggests the revised schedule instead makes the U.S. an outlier in terms of childhood immunization guidance.
- A review of immunization schedules across 38 countries found that the U.S. now recommends protection against fewer diseases than many peers, which on average cover 14 childhood illnesses. Several countries—including Australia, Brazil, Canada, Germany, Israel, Saudi Arabia, and South Korea—recommend vaccines against 15 to 18 diseases.
- More than 200 medical and public health organizations called on Congress to “conduct swift and robust oversight” of the Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) and investigate the schedule change.
- They denounced the changes to the schedule for their lack of supporting evidence and underscored the role of the previous schedule in keeping our nation healthy.
- The organizations also emphasized that this change will cause greater confusion for families and healthcare professionals, leaving more people unprotected and leading to preventable suffering and death.
- A joint letter signed by more than 70 scientific and medical organizations also strongly urged the CDC to ensure vaccine recommendations “remain grounded in U.S. data, expert consensus, and rigorous scientific review.”
- This was echoed by Senator Bill Cassidy (R-LA), a physician, in an interview: “Let’s just take care of people and move beyond…ideology.”
- However, President Donald Trump continues to support HHS Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s changes to vaccine policy, posting on social media that the new schedule is “far more reasonable.”
- Trump acknowledged that he received influenza (flu) and Covid vaccines this year and said that he would want his grandchildren protected by some vaccines.
- The gap between federal and state vaccine guidance continues to widen, with 40% of U.S. states rejecting the new CDC recommended schedule as of January 12 (see below map).
- Instead, the 20 states plan to follow vaccine guidance from the American Academy of Pediatrics (AAP) and/or base their state recommendations on scientific evidence.
States that have announced they won’t follow the new CDC recommended childhood immunization schedule: CA, CO, CT, HI, IL, MA, MD, MI, MN, NC, NH, NJ, NM, NV, NY, OR, PA, VT, WA, WI
Doctors Warn of Declining Childhood Vaccination Rates, Increasing Preventable Disease
- Doctors have raised concerns that the change in recommendations and CDC terminology will cause confusion and increase vaccine hesitancy.
- By recommending a vaccine only for high-risk populations or based on shared clinical decision-making (SCDM)—informed by consultation between parents and providers—doctors say it sends a message that only some kids really need the vaccine and undermines the value and necessity of vaccination.
- Additionally, many Americans don’t fully understand “SCDM.” A new survey found that 1 in 5 people think it means that “taking the vaccine may not be a good idea for everyone but would benefit some,” and about a quarter think it refers to discussing the decision with their family.
- Decreased childhood vaccination will lead to preventable illness and death, which is already occurring in the U.S. Last year, the country saw the highest number of measles cases in three decades, and the highest number of pediatric flu deaths since tracking of influenza began in 2004.
- Kennedy acknowledged that fewer children may get vaccinated under the new schedule, saying it may be “a better thing” if less people get the flu vaccine. As of January 9, 17 children have already died from flu this season.
Kennedy Lays Groundwork for Changes to Vaccine Injury Compensation Program
- The revisions to the recommended childhood vaccine schedule may be laying the groundwork for further policy changes, with Kennedy’s allies pushing to overhaul the Vaccine Injury Compensation Program (VICP).
- Established in 1986 under President Reagan, the VICP provides a streamlined, court-based process for compensating individuals found to have been injured by covered vaccines that are recommended for routine administration to children or pregnant women, without requiring these individuals to go through the burdensome process of proving negligence in court.
- They have argued that the program only covers routinely recommended vaccines, so vaccines that are recommended under SCDM should no longer fall under VICP.
- If that were to hold true, manufacturers of vaccines with only a SCDM recommendation would no longer be protected from liability and petitioners could circumvent the requirement to first go through the VICP for lawsuits.
- In the 1980s—before the program was established by Congress—a spate of lawsuitsagainst vaccine manufacturers threatened to drive them out of business, as well as cause vaccine shortages and reduce U.S. vaccination rates.
- Since the establishment of the VICP several new vaccines have been developed, saving millions more Americans from disability and death.
- However, SCDM vaccines do in fact remain on the Vaccine Injury Table, which lays out which vaccines are eligible for legal protection and which conditions are eligible for compensation. Experts contend that HHS would first need to go through a legal process to remove the SCDM vaccines from the table.
Kennedy Appoints Two OB-GYNs to ACIP Amid Review of Vaccines During Pregnancy
- On Tuesday (January 13), HHS announced the appointment of two new members to the CDC’s ACIP: Dr. Adam Urato and Dr. Kimberly Biss, both Obstetricians and Gynecologists (OB-GYNs).
- The committee additions come amid an ACIP work group’s review of vaccines recommended for women during pregnancy.
- Both new members have at times been critical of vaccine guidance. In a social media post, Urato said “The science is not ‘long-settled’ regarding vaccines.” Biss has been vocal in questioning the safety of mRNA vaccines, saying that pregnant women should be “wary” of the Covid vaccine.
- ACIP is set to meet February 25-26, but an agenda has not yet been announced.
OUTBREAK OUTLOOK
Flu Overwhelms Hospitals as Respiratory Season Surges Nationwide
- According to the latest CDC report, 41 states + D.C. are experiencing high or very high flu activity, along with elevated flu hospitalization and mortality rates nationwide, indicating the disease’s severity as respiratory season approaches its peak.
- During the week ending January 3, the CDC reported 8 new pediatric flu deaths, nearly doubling this season’s total from 9 to 17.
- The deaths occurred in Louisiana, New Jersey, North Dakota (marking the state’s first pediatric flu death since 2016), and South Carolina.
- The CDC expects elevated flu activity to continue for several more weeks, emphasizing that there is still time to receive a flu vaccination.
- During the week ending January 3, the CDC reported 8 new pediatric flu deaths, nearly doubling this season’s total from 9 to 17.
- The surge in flu cases has led to changes in capacity and services at some hospitals.
- Health and hospital officials in Des Moines, Iowa are asking the public to avoid emergency rooms when possible to keep beds available for critical flu cases.
- The Iowa hospital and others are also temporarily postponing some elective procedures to focus on incoming critical patients.
- Officials in New York are reporting “unprecedented” levels of flu—over 128,000 cases have been confirmed in the state so far this season, as providers and emergency departments are seeing sharp increases in patient volume.
- Hospitals in Connecticut, the D.C.-Maryland-Virginia area, and South Carolina report similar capacity strains.
- Health and hospital officials in Des Moines, Iowa are asking the public to avoid emergency rooms when possible to keep beds available for critical flu cases.
- Other respiratory conditions are also heightened as of January 9.
- RSV activity and hospitalizations remain elevated nationwide, particularly among children 0-4 years old.
- Pertussis (whooping cough) cases remain elevated, though totals are below their peak in November 2024.
- Covid activity is low but increasing and hospitalizations are low.
South Carolina Measles Outbreak Doubles in Size as U.S. Elimination Status at Stake
- As of January 9, 2026, the U.S. has reported 2,246 measles cases since January 1, 2025.
- The highest measles activity is concentrated in South Carolina, where health officials confirmed 223 new cases in the week between January 6and 13.
- This marks the sharpest increase in the state’s outbreak to date, more than doubling its size from 211 to 434 cases.
- New cases in North Carolina have now been linked to this outbreak, occurring among a family who traveled to Upstate South Carolina over the holidays.
- The South Carolina outbreak now surpasses case numbers in the Utah–Arizona outbreak, which totaled 188 and 217 cases as of January 12 and 13, respectively.
- Additional measles cases and exposures have been reported in Georgia, Maryland, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Virginia.
- The highest measles activity is concentrated in South Carolina, where health officials confirmed 223 new cases in the week between January 6and 13.
- At the same time, U.S. public health officials are working to preserve the country’s measles elimination status, which is increasingly at risk amid sustained transmission.
- To retain elimination status, investigators must demonstrate that current measles cases are not part of ongoing local transmission from the Texas outbreak, which infected 762 people between January and August 2025, but instead resulted from new importations by infected travelers.
- Under World Health Organization (WHO) criteria, a country must go at least 12 months without continuous local transmission of the same measles strain to maintain elimination status.
- As the one-year mark since the Texas outbreak approaches, officials are using patient interviews and viral genetic sequencing to assess whether recent cases in states such as Utah, Arizona, and South Carolina are genetically linked to the Texas strain or represent separate introductions.
- Public health officials caution that incomplete surveillance data may limit the ability to definitively link outbreaks; the final determination will be made by the Pan American Health Organization (PAHO).
- To retain elimination status, investigators must demonstrate that current measles cases are not part of ongoing local transmission from the Texas outbreak, which infected 762 people between January and August 2025, but instead resulted from new importations by infected travelers.
REALITY CHECK
These fact checks respond to several recent claims made by different groups and individuals.
CLAIM: Kids don’t need an annual flu shot. It isn’t very effective—the pediatric vaccine doesn’t prevent serious illness, hospitalizations, or death in children—and skipping it won’t have much of an impact.
- REALITY: Flu is a serious and potentially deadly respiratory disease, particularly for children, and the vaccine offers crucial protection. Evidence-based schedules continue to recommend annual flu vaccination of all children 6 months and older.
- During the 2024-2025 flu season, 289 childrendied from flu, and young children (0-4 years) are currently facing the second highest hospitalization rate behind older adults (65 and older).
- Numerous studies underscore flu vaccines’ efficacy and the value of vaccination.
- A CDC report found that 89% of the children that died from flu last season were not fully vaccinated.
- A large meta-analysis including 165 articles found that flu vaccination provides protection against severe flu complications, including hospitalization and death. In children, flu vaccines cut the risk of hospitalization or intensive care admission by about half.
- A recent evidence review of the flu vaccine showed 67% effectiveness against hospitalization in children—in other words, vaccination “eliminated about two-thirds of hospitalizations that would have occurred without it.”
- Additionally, data show that this season’s updated vaccine is effective in protecting against the new flu strain, subclade K.
- A November 2025 report from the U.K. Health Security Agency shows the 2025-2026 vaccine is 70-75% effective at preventing hospitalization in children aged 2 to 17 years.
- As of December 27, 2025, just 42.5% of U.S. children received a flu vaccine this season.
- The flu vaccine offers vital protection to younger children, and skipping it puts them at far higher risk of severe outcomes.
CLAIM: The Vaccine Injury Compensation Program(VICP) grants vaccine manufacturers immunity from all liability—they can’t be sued no matter how unsafe their vaccines are—and it is too difficult for people to be compensated.
- REALITY: The VICP is a no-fault system that provides a faster, less burdensome path to compensation for people who experience rare vaccine-related injuries.
- VICP does not require proof of negligence and is designed to ease the burden of proof for injured individuals, while also maintaining the stability needed to keep vaccines widely accessible.
- Additionally, if a person goes through VICP and is unsatisfied with the outcome, they have the right to appeal or reject the decision and file the claim against the manufacturer or provider in civil court.
- Over 70% of petitions filed from 2006 to 2023 were compensated (9,675 of 13,326), though it is important to note that being compensated does not necessarily mean that the vaccine caused the alleged injury.
- According to the government, “approximately 60% of all compensation awarded by VICP comes as result of a negotiated settlement between the parties in which HHS has not concluded, based upon review of the evidence, that the alleged vaccine(s) caused the alleged injury.”
WHAT TO WATCH
Vaccine Integrity Project to Conduct Independent Review of HPV Vaccine
- The Vaccine Integrity Project (VIP), an initiative of the University of Minnesota’s Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy (CIDRAP), announced that it will conduct an independent, transparent review of the scientific evidence related to the human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccine.
- Last week, the Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) revised the childhood immunization schedule to recommend a single HPV dose at age 11, despite the absence of a licensed single-dose HPV vaccine in the U.S.
- The review comes amid growing uncertainty around federal vaccine policy and recent changes to long-standing immunization recommendations. Findings will be made public and are intended to inform clinicians, medical societies, and policymakers.
Judge Orders Administration to Restore AAP Grant Funding; AAP to Amend Lawsuit Against Kennedy
- On Sunday (January 11), a federal judge ruled that the Trump administration must restore nearly $12 million in funding to the American Academy of Pediatrics (AAP).
- The ruling followed AAP’s lawsuit against HHS after the administration abruptly terminated seven grants in late December.
- The grants supported programs spanning sudden infant death prevention, adolescent health, rural health access, mental health, early identification of autism, and fetal alcohol spectrum disorder prevention.
- In awarding the preliminary injunction, Judge Beryl Howell cited evidence that HHS acted with a “retaliatory motive” when terminating the grants and found that the funding cuts would have caused irreparable harm to the AAP. The lawsuit remains ongoing.
- AAP’s other lawsuit against Secretary Kennedy, which has been joined by a coalition of medical organizations, also remains ongoing.
- The organizations plan to amend their suit to ask the courts for a preliminary injunction to prohibit the new CDC recommended childhood immunization schedule and block ACIP from meeting in February.
- They plan to file the injunction next week, and the hearing is set for February 13.
Vaccinate Your Family is a nonpartisan organization dedicated to protecting people of all ages from vaccine-preventable diseases. To learn more, visit us at: vaccinateyourfamily.org
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