The Vaccine Intelligence Report: January 28-February 3

The Vaccine Intelligence Report—brought to you by Vaccinate Your Family—provides clear, fact-based updates on vaccine policy, research, and public health each week. This report is part of Viral Truths, a resource designed to cut through the noise, offering concise information to help navigate the evolving immunization landscape.

THIS WEEK AT A GLANCE

  • Nearly half of the CDC’s routinely updated surveillance databases stopped adding new data in 2025, with the vast majority of impacted data related to vaccine surveillance
  • The U.S. will withhold new funding from Gavi unless it phases out thimerosal-containing vaccines, which could impact immunization efforts in lower-income countries
  • Senators questioned HHS Secretary Kennedy’s planned changes to the VICP following the firing of several members of the program’s advisory panel
  • ACIP leadership signals decreased focus on vaccine efficacy and renewed scrutiny of Covid vaccines
  • State vaccine policy continues to fragment, with 28 states now having rejected some or all of the CDC’s childhood vaccine recommendations, while others are moving to weaken vaccine requirements
  • Measles has been reported in 17 states this year, with experts warning that a loss of U.S. measles elimination status would carry significant public health and financial costs
  • Flu activity rose after a three-week decline, and pediatric hospitalizations and deaths remain severe
  • Kennedy appointed 21 new members to a federal autism advisory panel, many of whom have publicly scrutinized vaccine safety; no meeting has yet been scheduled

NEED TO KNOW

CDC Halts Updates to Nearly Half of Surveillance Databases; Vaccine Tracking Hit Hardest

  • A new analysis published in the Annals of Internal Medicine found that almost half (46%) of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s (CDC) surveillance databases—which were previously updated at least monthly—stopped adding new data in 2025.
    • Researchers evaluated the CDC’s catalog of public health data systems and identified 82 databases that historically provided monthly updates and then tracked how consistently they continued to be refreshed.
    • Among the 82 databases, pauses in data updates as of late 2025 were identified in 38 and analysis showed that most had not been updated for several months.
  • The pauses cut across multiple types of systems, with some focused on disease incidence, others on vaccine uptake or efficacy, and some capturing emergency response data.
  • A notable majority of the stalled databases—roughly 87%—were related to vaccine surveillance, including systems used to track data on vaccinations for Covid, flu, and respiratory syncytial virus (RSV).
  • While some experts noted that the timing of the initial data pauses coincided with organizational and leadership changes at Health and Human Services (HHS) and the CDC, only a small number of the paused systems had resumed routine updates by early December 2025, suggesting that these gaps were prolonged rather than short interruptions due to personnel shifts.
    • These pauses are especially concerning given the current public health landscape, as vaccine uptake has declined in many regions and groups across the country, and outbreaks of several vaccine-preventable diseases have intensified—heightening the need for timely surveillance data to guide public health response and prevention efforts.
  • Researchers and public health experts warn that delayed or missing data could hinder early outbreak detection, slow responsive policymaking, and weaken public trust in the CDC’s surveillance and guidance.
  • The study’s authors concluded that “such long pauses may have compromised evidence for decision making and policies…” and called for the CDC and federal partners to improve transparency around data update timelines, document reasons for pauses, and clarify expectations for resuming regular reporting.

U.S. Withholds Funding to Gavi Over Use of Thimerosal-Containing Vaccines

  • The Trump administration said last Wednesday (January 28) that it will withhold new U.S. funding for Gavi—the global vaccine alliance that supports immunization programs in low- and middle-income countries—unless the organization agrees to phase out vaccines containing thimerosal. Congress included $300 million for Gavi in the fiscal year (FY) 2026 foreign assistance appropriations bill.
    • In June 2025, HHS Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. said the U.S. would halt contributions to Gavi until the organization began “taking vaccine safety seriously.”
    • The funding freeze follows the U.S.’s recent withdrawal from the World Health Organization (WHO). Together, these moves mark a broader pullback from U.S. leadership in global public health, as the U.S. has long been one of the largest donors to both organizations.
  • Thimerosal is an ethylmercury-based preservative that has been used safely for almost 100 years in multi-dose vaccine vials to prevent bacterial and fungal contamination. Extensive reviews by the CDC, WHO, and Food and Drug Administration (FDA) have repeatedly found no credible evidence that thimerosal in vaccines causes harm.
  • Globally, many routine vaccines are packaged in multi-dose vials, which contain small amounts of thimerosal to prevent contamination when multiple doses are drawn from a single vial.
    • These vials are primarily used in low- and middle-income countries because they are more cost-effective to manufacture and distribute and require less refrigerated storage—an important consideration in settings with limited cold-chain infrastructure.
    • By contrast, the U.S. primarily uses single-dose vaccines, which do not contain thimerosal. Out of an abundance of caution, thimerosal was removed from all childhood vaccines in 2001 with the exception of a very small portion of the influenza vaccine supply.
    • In July 2025, the U.S. also ended the use of thimerosal in multi-dose influenza vaccines, which accounted for roughly 4% of doses administered during the 2024–2025 flu season.
  • Public health experts warn that restricting or eliminating thimerosal could raise costs, disrupt vaccine supply, and slow immunization efforts in countries that rely on multi-dose vials.
    • Transitioning to single-dose vials would require significantly more cold-chain storage, posing major challenges for vaccine delivery in low-resource and remote settings.
  • A Gavi spokesperson emphasized that any changes to vaccine policy would require board approval and would be “guided by scientific consensus.”

Senators Question Kennedy’s Planned Overhaul of Vaccine Injury Compensation Program

  • Last week, Democratic Senators requested information regarding Kennedy’s proposed changes to the Vaccine Injury Compensation Program (VICP), arguing that the changes “would undermine public health and threaten the domestic vaccine supply.”
    • For context, the VICP was created by Congress in 1986 and signed into law under President Ronald Reagan to compensate people in the rare event of a vaccine injury while ensuring adequate vaccine supply and stabilizing vaccine costs.
    • The program serves as an alternative to the traditional court system, where claims face higher evidentiary standards and significant legal costs. The VICP lowers barriers to compensation, allowing claimants to receive awards even when a vaccine is not definitively found to have caused an injury, and covers attorneys’ fees and legal expenses.
    • Although the VICP provides manufacturers with limited liability protections, claimants retain the ability to sue vaccine makers directly if they are unsatisfied with the outcome or if a ruling takes too long.
  • Senators Elizabeth Warren (D-MA), Richard Blumenthal (D-CT), Ed Markey (D-MA) and Angela Alsobrooks (D-MD) sent the January 27 letter following Kennedy’s firing of several members of the Advisory Commission on Childhood Vaccines (ACCV), which is responsible for advising the Secretary on implementation of the VICP.
    • They likened the move to Kennedy’s overhaul of the Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices (ACIP) last year and argued this step similarly erodes expertise, jeopardizes the system’s credibility, and threatens public health.
  • The authors acknowledged that the VICP is “not perfect” and highlighted expert suggestions for improving the program, such as increasing the number of trained special masters to hear claims, which would decrease the backlogs and time to reach a decision, and increasing award caps on some damages that have not been updated since the program was created.
  • However, the Senators allege that Kennedy’s efforts don’t address these concerns—nor are his actions transparent or based in science. The authors also highlight significant potential conflicts of interest in the proposed changes.
  • They argue that “Any reform of VICP should be transparent, free of ethics questions, based on the advice of legitimate public health and vaccine experts, and consistent with congressional intent.”

ACIP Signals Potential Vaccine Policy Shifts Ahead of February Meeting

  • Ahead of the scheduled ACIP meeting this month (February 25-27), committee Chair Dr. Kirk Milhoan and Vice Chair Dr. Robert Malone have indicated that there may be major changes on the horizon.
    • The panel develops recommendations on the use of vaccines in the U.S., upon which the CDC typically bases the recommended adult and childhood immunization schedules.
  • Kennedy has reportedly reoriented the panel to focus on investigating the potential harms of vaccination. In an interview, Milhoan stated that “efficacy will be secondary,” with ACIP serving “more as a safety committee.”
    • Experts have expressed concern that ACIP’s role as a vaccine “watchdog,” as described by Kennedy in January, could lead to the downplaying of vaccine benefits and an increase in vaccine skepticism.
    • Notably, ACIP’s charter stipulates, “Committee deliberations on use of vaccines to control disease in the U.S. shall include consideration of disease epidemiology and burden of disease, vaccine safety, vaccine efficacy and effectiveness, the quality of evidence reviewed, economic analyses, and implementation issues.”
  • Malone has recently made a number of comments highlighting his goal of removing Covid vaccines from the market entirely and accusing FDA Commissioner Dr. Marty Makary of blocking efforts to do so.
    • Malone stated, “If the FDA won’t act, there are other entities that will.” However, ACIP does not have the authority to revoke a vaccine’s license. While the committee’s recommendations carry weight, they must be adopted and enacted by CDC or HHS leadership.
  • While the February agenda is not yet known, Milhoan also indicated that he would like to revisit Covid vaccines.
  • Notably, the American Academy of Pediatrics (AAP) is currently attempting to block the upcoming meeting and to reverse the January revisions to the childhood vaccine schedule. A hearing on the preliminary injunction is scheduled for February 13.

New CDC Childhood Vaccine Schedule Accelerates State Policy Fractures

  • Kennedy’s significant revision of the recommended childhood vaccine schedule last month has led to widespread division among states, with 28 states (including D.C.) now saying they will not follow CDC vaccine recommendations for children.
    • 25 states have rejected the new schedule altogether, with most opting to instead follow recommendations from the AAP.
    • Alaska, Arizona, and Mississippi have specifically said they will not follow new CDC guidance on hepatitis B and/or Covid vaccines.
  • Simultaneously, Kennedy’s allies are using the momentum generated by the new schedule to help advance more vaccine policy changes focused on “medical freedom” at the state level.
    • The Medical Freedom Act Coalition—which includes Children’s Health Defense, the organization founded by Kennedy—is reportedly working with representatives in nearly a dozen states on bills that would reduce or eliminate school and daycare vaccine requirements.
  • Many states had related efforts underway even before the schedule change and continue to push for further changes to vaccine requirements.
    • Florida Surgeon General Joseph Ladapo, alongside Governor Ron DeSantis, announced in September that the state intends to remove all vaccine requirements. The state Department of Health plans to do so for four vaccines—other vaccines changes will require legislative action.
      • Also in Florida, the state Senate voted on January 28 to advance a bill expanding vaccine exemptions and requiring new parental acknowledgment forms before vaccinating children.
    • In Texas, opponents of vaccine requirements are pushing state health department officials to cut vaccines from the list of those required by schools, which would bypass the need to change state law.
      • Last May, Texas enacted a law making it easier for parents to exempt their children from all vaccines, and a number of other bills aim to further weaken vaccine requirements.
    • In December, Children’s Health Defense filed a lawsuit in New York challenging the state’s 2019 decision to no longer allow religious exemptions from school requirements.
    • Three bills in New Hampshire aim to reduce vaccine requirements—one of which would end them for schoolchildren altogether.

Senators Press NIH Director on Autism and Vaccines

  • National Institutes of Health (NIH) Director Dr. Jay Bhattacharya testified before the Senate Health, Education, Labor, and Pensions (HELP) Committee yesterday (February 3) on modernizing the agency.
  • During the hearing, Senators pressed Bhattacharya on vaccine policy shifts under this administration, and he acknowledged that he had “not seen a study that suggests any single vaccine causes autism.”
    • However, he added that while studies have established that there is not a link between measles, mumps, rubella (MMR) vaccines and autism, Bhattacharya said other vaccines are “less well studied,” leaving the door open for Kennedy and allies to continue advancing the debunked theory.
  • The exchange comes amid heightened vaccine scrutiny after Kennedy restructured a federal autism advisory committee, appointing several vaccine critics.

OUTBREAK OUTLOOK

Measles Emerges in New States, Experts Discuss Implications of Continued Outbreaks

  • As of January 30, the U.S. has recorded 722 measles cases since January 1, 2026, with transmission now reported in 17 states.
  • The highest concentration of cases remains in South Carolina, where the ongoing Upstate outbreak totaled 876 cases as of February 3. Officials reported 87 new cases in the week since January 27, underscoring continued acceleration of the outbreak.
  • Several other states are emerging as areas of concern:
    • Arizona has reported 24 cases so far this year, including one case linked to an Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) detention facility.
    • Florida has identified nine cases, while Idaho has reported seven.
    • Oklahoma confirmed a measles case this week—the first reported case since June.
    • Texas also reported two cases at an ICE detention facility on January 31.
    • Utah has recorded 42 new measles cases so far this year.
    • Wisconsin identified one new case on the campus of its largest university.
  • Experts warn that the U.S.’s impending loss of measles elimination status, which is increasingly likely amid ongoing cases nationwide, has serious cost and public health implications.
    • Dr. William Moss of the Johns Hopkins International Vaccine Access Center explained that a measles outbreak costs $43,000 per case on average, with total costs exceeding $1 million once outbreaks surpass 50 cases—diverting scarce public health resources from other priorities.
    • Dr. Demetre Daskalakis, former Director of the CDC’s National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases, said in late January that measles outbreaks have widespread consequences and that the loss of elimination status “would indicate that our public health infrastructure is failing to protect Americans from preventable disease.”
  • The Pan American Health Organization (PAHO) Regional Monitoring and Re-Verification Commission for Measles, Rubella, and Congenital Rubella Syndrome (RVC) will review the U.S.’s measles elimination status in April.

Flu Activity Ticks Up After 3-Week Decline, Severe Pediatric Outcomes Continue

  • CDC data for the week ending January 24 show flu activity increased after three consecutive weeks of decline, with positive test results rising 18% nationwide.
    • 29 states are currently reporting high or very high flu activity, down slightly from 30 states and Washington, D.C. the week prior.
  • The CDC estimates that the current flu season has resulted in more than 20 million flu illnesses, 270,000 hospitalizations, and 11,000 deaths nationwide.
  • Pediatric flu outcomes remain particularly severe. Eight pediatric flu-related deaths were reported during in the past week, bringing the season total to 52.
    • Approximately 90% of pediatric deaths have occurred among children who were not fully vaccinated against flu.
    • Recent pediatric flu deaths were reported in several states including North Carolina and Washington.
  • Vaccination coverage among children remains largely unchanged from last year. As of January 17, 45.1% of children ages 6 months to 17 years had received a flu vaccine, compared with 45.3% at the same point last season.
    • A recent analysis underscores the benefits of vaccination, finding that seasonal flu vaccination reduces the risk of flu-related emergency department visits among children both with and without underlying medical conditions.
  • More broadly, national respiratory illness activity is moderate as of January 30.

REALITY CHECK

These fact checks respond to several recent claims made by different groups and individuals.

CLAIM: It’s possible that childhood vaccines are associated with autism in at least some children, and we do not have enough evidence to rule it out.

  • REALITY: Extensive evidence from decades of studies carried out across multiple countries has demonstrated that there is no causal link between vaccines and autism—in fact, no environmental factor has been better studied as a potential cause of autism than vaccines.
  • Large, well-designed population studies have repeatedly tested the vaccine–autism hypothesis and consistently found no association.
    • One of the most comprehensive examples is a nationwide Danish cohort study that followed more than one million children for over two decades. Researchers found no evidence of a causal relationship between aluminum-adjuvanted childhood vaccines and autism.
    • Another study—a large evidence-based meta-analysis of cohort and case control studies—also found no association between autism and vaccination and likewise found no link between autism and vaccine ingredients (e.g., thimerosal) often singled out by critics in public debate.
  • After reviewing the totality of the evidence, independent expert bodies around the world have reached the same conclusion: vaccines do notcause autism.
    • The National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine has repeatedly concluded that the evidence favors rejection of a causal relationship between autism and both MMR vaccines and thimerosal-containing vaccines.
    • The WHO’s Global Advisory Committee on Vaccine Safety recently reiterated that autism is not associated with early-childhood exposure to aluminum-adjuvanted vaccines based on large, methodologically rigorous registry research.
  • It is important to note that the origin of this inaccurate and misinformed claim is tied to a now-discredited report from the 1990’s that was extensively investigated and found to be deeply flawed and fraudulent. The report was removedfrom the journal in which it was published and the author stripped of his medical license.
  • Despite this, the claim has persisted and periodically resurfaces in public discourse. Today, it has gained renewed attention amid heightened vaccine scrutiny, including actions by HHS under Secretary Kennedy that have called into question long-standing, evidence-based vaccine policy—despite the overwhelming scientific consensus that vaccines do not cause autism.
  • That being said, the scientific evidence has not changed. There is no credible data that links childhood vaccination to autism and framing this issue as open-ended or unresolved ignores decades of rigorous research and extensive, ongoing safety monitoring.

CLAIM: Thimerosal is a dangerous, mercury-based preservative that should not be used in any vaccines.

  • REALITY: Thimerosal is one of the most thoroughly studied ingredients in vaccines and extensive research has shown no credible evidence that the ingredient causes harm or increases the risk of autism.
    • Although thimerosal is a mercury-basedpreservative, it contains ethylmercury, a form that is rapidly cleared from the body and does not accumulate to harmful levels. This is distinct from methylmercury, the type found in some fish, which can be toxic with high or prolonged exposure.
  • In 1999, U.S. federal health agencies and major medical organizations aligned on reducing the use of thimerosal as a precautionary measure. The preservative was removed from nearly all vaccines used in the U.S. in 2001, but it’s still used in other countries.
    • Thimerosal is used in multidose vaccine vials to prevent contamination. These vials are particularly important for low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) as single-dose vialsare more expensive and require higher-cost transportation and storage.
  • Removing thimerosal would pose serious challenges for LMICs, both in terms of costs and administration. Ultimately, experts say this would make vaccines more expensive and therefore available to fewer children, leading to preventable illness and death.

WHAT TO WATCH

RFK Overhauls Federal Autism Advisory Committee

  • HHS Secretary Robert F. Kennedy has appointed 21 new members to the Integrity Autism Coordinating Committee (IACC), a panel that helps guide federal autism policy and research priorities.
    • The committee, created under the 2006 Combating Autism Act, is meant to represent a wide range of perspectives, but experts say the new roster is heavily weighted toward advocacy figures with little scientific training rather than leading autism researchers.
  • Many of the appointees have publicly criticized vaccines or promoted claims that vaccines cause autism, including several parents who have publicly blamed vaccines for their children’s diagnosis.
  • The first public meeting of the new panel will be announced in the Federal Register and on the IACC website in advance, though no date has been provided.

Vaccinate Your Family is a nonpartisan organization dedicated to protecting people of all ages from vaccine-preventable diseases. To learn more, visit us at: vaccinateyourfamily.org

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